Allan Lichtman Presidential Prediction 2024 Presidential Election. Allan lichtman's prediction on whether trump or harris will win the 2024 presidential election based on his 13 keys for a successful election campaign. When five or less are false, the incumbent party candidate is.

While campaign events and speeches draw much attention, lichtman argues that the governing of the incumbent party is more predictive of election outcomes. Historian allan lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections, and he’s done it without the use of polling data.